Thesario Economic Dashboard

Weekly Analysis

Key Takeaways (Jul 03, 2026)

TLDR: Friday's jobs report detonated the rally the thesis needed — payrolls at 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus, with labor-force participation at a 50-year low, gave markets exactly the "bad news is good news" signal to price rate cuts, and the Dow ripped nearly 600 points to a record close. But the internals are the story: this is a labor market weakening for the wrong reasons (workers leaving the workforce, not stronger hiring), oil's collapse to $71.87 is disinflationary while tariffs push durable goods prices the other way, and Trump's public campaign to remove Fed Governor Cook in favor of Warsh means the "cut" the market just priced isn't guaranteed to be the Fed's decision alone. The thesis — rate cuts and fiscal spending supporting risk assets — got its best week of market validation in a month, but the mechanism generating the cut case is one the thesis should be uncomfortable celebrating.

Read full analysis →

Investment Thesis

12 data categories mapped to the 8 framework components

Rate Cuts and Fiscal Spending Support Risk Assets in 2026

1 green, 4 yellow, 3 red → 6M ago Now

Split economy — business CapEx (AI/data centers) + fiscal spending drive growth, consumers squeezed by inflation + labor softening, Fed cuts under political pressure despite above-target inflation

The Fed is cutting into a growing economy with fiscal tailwinds — historically the best setup for risk assets

Component Check: 1 green, 4 yellow, 3 red

Rates

Inflation

Labor

Consumer

Credit

Fiscal

Growth

Market Signals

Watch:

New Fed Chair May 2026

2026 Midterm Elections November 2026

Tariff Trajectory Ongoing

AI Investment Cycle Ongoing

Market Signals

▶Asset Classes

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

	S&P 500 US large cap equities · ↑ bullish, ↓ bearish	AGG US Aggregate Bond ETF · ↑ bonds rallying, ↓ bonds selling	VNQ Real Estate ETF · ↑ real estate strong, ↓ rate pressure	Gold Safe haven · ↑ fear/inflation hedge demand, ↓ risk-on	Oil Crude oil · ↑ demand strong, ↓ slowdown	Copper Industrial bellwether · ↑ growth optimism, ↓ slowdown	Bitcoin Bitcoin · ↑ risk appetite, ↓ risk-off
Latest	$748.28 (Jul 21)	$97.74 (Jul 21)	$99.52 (Jul 21)	$374.81 (Jul 21)	$79.20 (Jul 13)	$39.53 (Jul 21)	$65,151 (Jul 21)
1W (Jul 14, 2026)	-0.5%	-0.3%	+2.0%	+0.7%	+0.0%	+2.6%	+0.2%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	+9.7%	-2.1%	+12%	-5.4%	+38%	+13%	-26%
1M (Jun 19, 2026)	+0.2%	-1.2%	+4.1%	-3.2%	-6.4%	+1.7%	+3.0%
3M (Apr 21, 2026)	+6.3%	-1.7%	+4.4%	-13%	-13%	+8.1%	-15%
6M (Jan 21, 2026)	+9.2%	-2.3%	+9.1%	-16%	+31%	+11%	-27%
1Y (Jul 21, 2025)	+19%	-0.7%	+10%	+20%	+16%	+13%	-45%
5Y (Jul 21, 2021)	+72%	-16%	-6.0%	+122%	+13%	+51%	+103%

▶Equity Dimensions

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

Level 2: Equity Dimensions

✕ Close

Which department is busy?

Four independent lenses on equities: size, style, geography, and breadth. Each tells a different story about what's happening inside the stock market.

Size

	S&P 500 Large Cap · ↑ large caps leading, ↓ underperforming	IWM Russell 2000 Small Cap · ↑ broad growth, ↓ flight to quality	Spread Large vs Small cap · ↑ large leading, ↓ small leading
Latest	$748.28 (Jul 21)	$296.54 (Jul 21)	—
1W (Jul 14, 2026)	-0.5%	+0.7%	-1.2%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	+9.7%	+20%	-11%
1M (Jun 19, 2026)	+0.2%	+0.3%	-0.1%
3M (Apr 21, 2026)	+6.3%	+8.0%	-1.8%
6M (Jan 21, 2026)	+9.2%	+11%	-1.6%
1Y (Jul 21, 2025)	+19%	+34%	-15%
5Y (Jul 21, 2021)	+72%	+34%	+39%

Style

	IVW S&P 500 Growth · ↑ growth favored, ↓ rotation out	IVE S&P 500 Value · ↑ value favored, ↓ growth preferred	Spread Growth vs Value · ↑ growth leading, ↓ value leading
Latest	$136.34 (Jul 21)	$230.56 (Jul 21)	—
1W (Jul 14, 2026)	-1.1%	+0.3%	-1.4%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	+11%	+8.7%	+1.9%
1M (Jun 19, 2026)	-1.2%	+1.9%	-3.0%
3M (Apr 21, 2026)	+7.5%	+4.9%	+2.6%
6M (Jan 21, 2026)	+12%	+6.4%	+5.2%
1Y (Jul 21, 2025)	+21%	+17%	+4.2%
5Y (Jul 21, 2021)	+83%	+56%	+27%

Geography

	S&P 500 US equities · ↑ US leading, ↓ US lagging	EFA Developed Markets ex-US · ↑ global strength, ↓ US outperforming	EEM Emerging Markets · ↑ global risk-on, ↓ risk-off
Latest	$748.28 (Jul 21)	$104.06 (Jul 21)	$65.34 (Jul 21)
1W (Jul 14, 2026)	-0.5%	+0.1%	-0.5%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	+9.7%	+8.4%	+19%
1M (Jun 19, 2026)	+0.2%	-0.3%	-7.7%
3M (Apr 21, 2026)	+6.3%	+2.4%	+5.0%
6M (Jan 21, 2026)	+9.2%	+5.1%	+12%
1Y (Jul 21, 2025)	+19%	+17%	+32%
5Y (Jul 21, 2021)	+72%	+32%	+23%

Breadth

	S&P 500 Cap-weighted · ↑ mega-cap driven, ↓ broad weakness	RSP S&P 500 Equal Weight · ↑ broad participation, ↓ narrow market	Spread Equal vs Cap-weighted · ↑ broad rally, ↓ narrow leadership
Latest	$748.28 (Jul 21)	$212.76 (Jul 21)	—
1W (Jul 14, 2026)	-0.5%	-0.3%	+0.1%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	+9.7%	+11%	+1.3%
1M (Jun 19, 2026)	+0.2%	+1.3%	+1.1%
3M (Apr 21, 2026)	+6.3%	+5.0%	-1.2%
6M (Jan 21, 2026)	+9.2%	+6.7%	-2.5%
1Y (Jul 21, 2025)	+19%	+16%	-3.1%
5Y (Jul 21, 2021)	+72%	+41%	-31%

▶Sector Rotation

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

	XLY Consumer Discretionary · ↑ spending strong, ↓ belt-tightening	XLF Financials · ↑ rate/growth optimism, ↓ credit concerns	XLU Utilities — defensive · ↑ safety seeking, ↓ risk-on	XLP Consumer Staples — defensive · ↑ safety seeking, ↓ risk-on	Spread Cyclical vs Defensive · ↑ risk-on, ↓ defensive rotation
Latest	$114.87 (Jul 21)	$56.11 (Jul 21)	$44.92 (Jul 21)	$84.06 (Jul 21)	—
1W (Jul 14, 2026)	-0.9%	-0.1%	-1.7%	+0.8%	-0.1%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	-3.8%	+2.5%	+5.2%	+8.2%	-7.4%
1M (Jun 19, 2026)	-1.9%	+4.7%	+0.4%	+0.9%	+0.8%
3M (Apr 21, 2026)	-3.5%	+7.3%	-0.1%	+2.7%	+0.6%
6M (Jan 21, 2026)	-5.4%	+5.0%	+4.4%	+2.0%	-3.4%
1Y (Jul 21, 2025)	+3.3%	+7.1%	+8.4%	+3.9%	-1.0%
5Y (Jul 21, 2021)	+32%	+53%	+59%	+19%	+3.6%

▶Cross-Asset Signals

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

	Cu/Au Ratio Copper/Gold Ratio · ↑ optimism, ↓ fear	VIX Volatility Index · ↑ fear rising, ↓ calm	USD/JPY Dollar/Yen · ↑ risk-on, ↓ safe-haven yen bid	Dollar Trade-Weighted Dollar · ↑ dollar strength, ↓ dollar weakness
Latest	—	18.65 (Jul 20)	162.48 (Jul 21)	120.53 (Jul 17)
1W (Jul 14, 2026)	+1.9%	+13%	+0.2%	+0.0%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	+20%	+25%	+3.7%	+0.7%
1M (Jun 19, 2026)	+5.1%	+11%	+0.7%	+0.1%
3M (Apr 21, 2026)	+24%	-4.4%	+1.9%	+2.1%
6M (Jan 21, 2026)	+31%	+10%	+2.5%	+1.0%
1Y (Jul 21, 2025)	-5.5%	+12%	+10%	+0.5%
5Y (Jul 21, 2021)	-32%	+4.1%	+47%	+6.3%

▶Investment Styles

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

	MTUM Momentum Factor · ↑ trends persisting, ↓ reversals	QUAL Quality Factor · ↑ flight to quality, ↓ speculative appetite	XLU Utilities — low vol proxy · ↑ safety demand, ↓ risk-on	IVE Value Factor · ↑ value rally, ↓ growth preferred
Latest	$314.48 (Jul 21)	$218.13 (Jul 21)	$44.92 (Jul 21)	$230.56 (Jul 21)
1W (Jul 14, 2026)	-1.6%	-0.5%	-1.7%	+0.3%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	+26%	+9.8%	+5.2%	+8.7%
1M (Jun 19, 2026)	-7.1%	+1.0%	+0.4%	+1.9%
3M (Apr 21, 2026)	+16%	+6.2%	-0.1%	+4.9%
6M (Jan 21, 2026)	+23%	+8.0%	+4.4%	+6.4%
1Y (Jul 21, 2025)	+31%	+18%	+8.4%	+17%
5Y (Jul 21, 2021)	+81%	+61%	+59%	+56%

Treasury Rates

Period	10Y Treasury (daily) Nominal yield	10Y Breakeven (daily) Nominal minus TIPS	10Y TIPS Yield (daily) Real yield (TIPS)	2Y-10Y Spread (daily) Yield curve spread
Latest	4.60% (Jul 20)	2.26% (Jul 21)	2.35% (Jul 20)	0.37% (Jul 21)
1M	4.46% (Jun 18)	2.25% (Jun 18)	2.21% (Jun 18)	0.27% (Jun 18)
6M	4.26% (Jan 21)	2.34% (Jan 21)	1.92% (Jan 21)	0.66% (Jan 21)
1Y	4.38% (Jul 21)	2.40% (Jul 21)	1.98% (Jul 21)	0.53% (Jul 21)
2Y	4.25% (Jul 19)	2.32% (Jul 19)	1.93% (Jul 19)	-0.24% (Jul 19)
5yr Range	1.19% 4.98%	2.02% 3.02%	-1.19% 2.52%	-1.08% 1.29%
10yr Range	0.52% 4.98%	0.50% 3.02%	-1.19% 2.52%	-1.08% 1.59%

10Y Treasury Nominal yield

4.60% (Jul 20)

1M 4.46%

6M 4.26%

1Y 4.38%

2Y 4.25%

5yr 1.19%

4.98%

10yr 0.52%

4.98%

10Y Breakeven Nominal minus TIPS

2.26% (Jul 21)

1M 2.25%

6M 2.34%

1Y 2.40%

2Y 2.32%

5yr 2.02%

3.02%

10yr 0.50%

3.02%

10Y TIPS Yield Real yield (TIPS)

2.35% (Jul 20)

1M 2.21%

6M 1.92%

1Y 1.98%

2Y 1.93%

5yr -1.19%

2.52%

10yr -1.19%

2.52%

2Y-10Y Spread Yield curve spread

0.37% (Jul 21)

1M 0.27%

6M 0.66%

1Y 0.53%

2Y -0.24%

5yr -1.08%

1.29%

10yr -1.08%

1.59%

Inflation

Core PCE YoY

3.41% (May '26)

Overheating

↑0.81% vs 1M

5yr range 2.52%

5.61%

Core CPI YoY

2.57% (Jun '26)

Near Target

↓0.03% vs 1M

5yr range 2.47%

6.63%

Monetary Policy

Fed Funds Rate

3.63% (Jun '26)

Normal Range

→flat vs 1M ago

5yr range 0.08%

5.33%

−

1-Year Expected Inflation

2.39% (Jul '26)

Anchored

↓0.63% vs 1M

5yr range 1.37%

4.23%

=

Real Fed Funds Rate

1.24% (Jun '26)

Neutral Policy

↑0.86% vs 1M

5yr range -3.06%

3.71%

Growth

Real-time GDP tracking

GDPNow Real-Time GDP Estimate

1.68% (Q2 '26)

Healthy Growth

↑0.44% vs 1Q

5yr range -2.73%

6.50%

Weekly Economic Index

2.61% (Jul 11)

Healthy Growth

↓0.56% vs 1W

5yr range 1.06%

7.34%

Labor Market

Unemployment Rate

4.20% (Jun '26)

Full Employment

↓0.10% vs 1M

5yr range 3.40%

5.10%

Initial Jobless Claims

208K (Jul 11)

Healthy Churn

↓7K vs 1W

5yr range 189K

380K

JOLTS Job Openings

7.59M (May '26)

Healthy Demand

↓0.02M vs 1M

5yr range 6.54M

12.13M

Credit Markets

BBB Corporate Bond Spread

0.97% (Jul 20)

Tight Spreads

↑0.01% vs 1W

5yr range 0.92%

2.10%

High Yield Spread

2.69% (Jul 20)

Reaching for Yield

→flat vs 1W ago

5yr range 2.59%

5.99%

Money Supply

M2 × Velocity = GDP

M2 Money Supply

$23.1T (May '26)

↑$0.2T vs 1M

5yr range $20.7T

$23.1T

×

M2 Velocity

1.41 (Q1 '26)

Post-QE Normal

↑0.00 vs 1Q

5yr range 1.16

1.41

=

Nominal GDP

$31.9T (Q1 '26)

↑$0.4T vs 1Q

5yr range $24.8T

$31.9T

M2 YoY Growth

5.61% (May '26)

Monetary Neutral

↑1.51% vs 1M

5yr range -4.69%

13.32%

Consumer Health

Personal Savings Rate

3.00% (May '26)

Stretched

↑0.40% vs 1M

5yr range 2.20%

8.70%

Consumer Sentiment

44.8 (May '26)

Despair

↓5.0 vs 1M

5yr range 44.8

79.4

Credit Card Delinquency Rate

2.92% (Q1 '26)

Normal

↓0.02% vs 1Q

5yr range 1.57%

3.22%

Debt Service Ratio

11.16% (Q1 '26)

Manageable

↓0.16% vs 1Q

5yr range 10.23%

11.32%

Real Wage Growth YoY

0.53% (Q2 '26)

Keeping Pace

↓0.82% vs 1Q

5yr range -3.72%

2.21%

Government Fiscal Health

Total Public Debt Outstanding

$39.6T (Jul '26)

↑$0.3T vs 1M

5yr range $28.4T

$39.6T

Monthly Tax Receipts

$564B (Jun '26)

↓$382B vs 1M

5yr range $281B

$946B

Monthly Budget Deficit/Surplus

$+164B (Jun '26)

↓$+93B vs 1M

5yr range $-308B

$+430B

Average Interest Rate on Debt

3.41% (Jun '26)

↑0.04% vs 1M

5yr range 1.42%

3.42%

Debt/GDP Ratio

124.20% (Q1 '26)

Unsustainable

↑8.20% vs 1Q

5yr range 114.00%

124.51%

Weekly Analysis

Key Takeaways (Jul 03, 2026)

Investment Thesis

Rate Cuts and Fiscal Spending Support Risk Assets in 2026

Market Signals

Level 1: Asset Classes

Level 2: Equity Dimensions

Size

Style

Geography

Breadth

Level 3: Sector Rotation

Level 4: Cross-Asset Signals

Level 5: Investment Styles

Treasury Rates

Inflation

Monetary Policy

Growth

Labor Market

Credit Markets

Money Supply

Consumer Health

Government Fiscal Health