Market Pulse

Monday, Feb 16, 2026
S&P 500682VIX20.810Y4.09%DXY118.2Gold$463Oil$64.5
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S&P 500 stalls at 7,000 as CPI relief fades into weekend quiet — The post-Valentine's session offered little new catalyst, with the S&P 500 settling at 6,817 after once again failing to punch through the 7,000 ceiling that has capped rallies for weeks. Friday's cooler CPI print — 2.4% versus 2.5% expected — gave bulls a brief lift, but the momentum dissipated as traders digested Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's remarks on supply-side disinflation dynamics and the limits of how far cooling prices can carry equities when tariff costs are still flowing through the pipeline. The 10-year yield held at 4.09%, a level that reflects comfort with the soft-landing narrative but not enough conviction to bid up risk assets further.

S&P 500 stalls at 7,000 as CPI relief fades into weekend quiet — The post-Valentine's session offered little new catalyst, with the S&P 500 settling at 6,817 after once again failing to punch through the 7,000 ceiling that has capped rallies for weeks. Friday's cooler CPI print — 2.4% versus 2.5% expected — gave bulls a brief lift, but the momentum dissipated as traders digested Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's remarks on supply-side disinflation dynamics and the limits of how far cooling prices can carry equities when tariff costs are still flowing through the pipeline. The 10-year yield held at 4.09%, a level that reflects comfort with the soft-landing narrative but not enough conviction to bid up risk assets further.

Tariff math keeps getting worse for Main Street — Fresh New York Fed research put hard numbers on what markets already suspected: 90% of the tariff burden is landing on American firms and consumers, with the average import rate now at 13%. January's 300%-plus surge in tariff revenue shrank the monthly deficit, but that's a pyrrhic fiscal win when small businesses are reporting the sharpest cost pressures in years. Atlanta Fed surveys paint a picture of firms caught between rising input costs and customers unwilling to absorb more price increases — exactly the margin squeeze that shows up in earnings misses quarters later. The Supreme Court's pending decision on presidential trade authority looms as the next binary event for tariff-exposed sectors.

Gold and the dollar tell competing stories about what comes next — Gold held firm above $462 while fund managers took their most bearish positioning on the dollar in a decade, a combination that typically signals markets bracing for a weaker U.S. growth trajectory or further policy easing. WTI crude below $65 reinforces the demand-side concern. Yet the VIX at 20.8 suggests options markets aren't pricing in a shock — just a slow grind of uncertainty. With Powell's semiannual testimony behind us and no major data until next week, markets enter a holding pattern where the CPI downside surprise will either be confirmed as a trend or dismissed as noise.

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Sunday, Feb 15, 2026
S&P 500682VIX20.810Y4.09%DXY118.2Gold$463Oil$64.5
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CPI surprise gives bulls a Valentine's gift, but 7,000 remains elusive — Markets rallied into the long weekend on a cooler-than-expected inflation print, with consumer prices rising 2.4% annually in January versus the 2.5% consensus. The S&P 500 pushed toward the 7,000 level yet again but failed to break through, closing the week in what traders are wearily calling another "could've been worse" outcome. The benign CPI read should give the Fed room to stay patient, reinforcing Chair Powell's measured tone in his semiannual testimony this week where he signaled no urgency to cut or hike. The 10-year yield eased to 4.09%, consistent with a market pricing in a soft-landing glide path rather than any imminent policy shift.

CPI surprise gives bulls a Valentine's gift, but 7,000 remains elusive — Markets rallied into the long weekend on a cooler-than-expected inflation print, with consumer prices rising 2.4% annually in January versus the 2.5% consensus. The S&P 500 pushed toward the 7,000 level yet again but failed to break through, closing the week in what traders are wearily calling another "could've been worse" outcome. The benign CPI read should give the Fed room to stay patient, reinforcing Chair Powell's measured tone in his semiannual testimony this week where he signaled no urgency to cut or hike. The 10-year yield eased to 4.09%, consistent with a market pricing in a soft-landing glide path rather than any imminent policy shift.

Tariff revenue surges but the bill is coming due — The fiscal backdrop is getting harder to ignore. Tariff collections soared more than 300% in January as the average U.S. import tariff rate climbed from 2.6% to 13% over the past year, shrinking the monthly deficit relative to last year. But New York Fed research confirms what economists have warned: nearly 90% of the tariff burden is falling on U.S. firms and consumers, not foreign exporters. Atlanta Fed surveys show firms already bracing for higher costs and pricing pressure ahead, with small businesses particularly strained. The January jobs report added to the muddiness — surprisingly strong headline growth, but not enough to dispel lingering uncertainty about the labor market's true trajectory.

Gold holds its ground as a hedge on everything — Gold remained firm above $462, acting as a barometer of unresolved risk. The VIX sitting just above 20 tells the same story — not panic, but not complacency either. Fund managers have taken their most bearish stance on the dollar in a decade, and WTI crude dipping below $65 suggests demand concerns are creeping in despite geopolitical noise. The week ahead will test whether the CPI relief was a one-month gift or the start of a trend, with markets watching for any tariff escalation following the Supreme Court's pending decision on trade authority.

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