Thesario Economic Dashboard

Weekly Analysis

Key Takeaways (Feb 16, 2026)

TLDR: A cooler-than-expected CPI print (2.4% vs 2.5%) gave the Fed breathing room, but the real story is a massive rotation underway — money is pouring out of US mega-cap growth into value, international, and emerging markets while the dollar hits its most bearish positioning in a decade. The thesis holds with 4 green components, but the fiscal trajectory (124.3% debt/GDP, $257B monthly deficits) remains the structural weak link that gold's relentless surge keeps highlighting.

Read full analysis →

Investment Thesis

Rate Cuts and Fiscal Spending Support Risk Assets in 2026

4 green, 3 yellow, 1 red → 6M ago Now

Split economy — business CapEx (AI/data centers) + fiscal spending drive growth, consumers squeezed by inflation + labor softening, Fed cuts under political pressure despite above-target inflation

The Fed is cutting into a growing economy with fiscal tailwinds — historically the best setup for risk assets

Component Check: 4 green, 3 yellow, 1 red

Rates

Inflation

Labor

Consumer

Credit

Fiscal

Growth

Market Signals

Watch:

New Fed Chair May 2026

2026 Midterm Elections November 2026

Tariff Trajectory Ongoing

AI Investment Cycle Ongoing

Market Signals

▶Asset Classes

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

S&P 500

AGG

VNQ

Gold

Oil

Copper

Bitcoin

	S&P 500 US large cap equities · ↑ bullish, ↓ bearish	AGG US Aggregate Bond ETF · ↑ bonds rallying, ↓ bonds selling	VNQ Real Estate ETF · ↑ real estate strong, ↓ rate pressure	Gold Safe haven · ↑ fear/inflation hedge demand, ↓ risk-on	Oil Crude oil · ↑ demand strong, ↓ slowdown	Copper Industrial bellwether · ↑ growth optimism, ↓ slowdown	Bitcoin Bitcoin · ↑ risk appetite, ↓ risk-off
Latest	$681.75 (Feb 15)	$100.99 (Feb 15)	$94.59 (Feb 15)	$462.62 (Feb 15)	$64.53 (Feb 9)	$35.56 (Feb 15)	$69,801 (Feb 15)
1W (Feb 9, 2026)	-1.8%	+0.8%	+2.1%	-0.9%	+0.0%	-3.3%	-0.4%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	-0.0%	+1.1%	+6.9%	+17%	+13%	+1.7%	-20%
1M (Jan 16, 2026)	-1.4%	+0.9%	+2.1%	+9.8%	+8.6%	-1.1%	-27%
3M (Nov 14, 2025)	+1.5%	+1.0%	+5.6%	+23%	+6.0%	+14%	-26%
6M (Aug 15, 2025)	+6.0%	+2.1%	+5.5%	+50%	+1.2%	+27%	-41%
1Y (Feb 14, 2025)	+12%	+3.4%	+3.2%	+74%	-9.2%	+21%	-27%
5Y (Feb 16, 2021)	+74%	-13%	+6.4%	+175%	+7.4%	+50%	+42%

▶Equity Dimensions

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

S&P 500

IWM

Spread

IVW

IVE

Spread

EFA

EEM

RSP

Spread

Level 2: Equity Dimensions

✕ Close

Which department is busy?

Four independent lenses on equities: size, style, geography, and breadth. Each tells a different story about what's happening inside the stock market.

Size

	S&P 500 Large Cap · ↑ large caps leading, ↓ underperforming	IWM Russell 2000 Small Cap · ↑ broad growth, ↓ flight to quality	Spread Large vs Small cap · ↑ large leading, ↓ small leading
Latest	$681.75 (Feb 15)	$262.96 (Feb 15)	—
1W (Feb 9, 2026)	-1.8%	-1.5%	-0.3%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	-0.0%	+6.8%	-6.8%
1M (Jan 16, 2026)	-1.4%	-1.1%	-0.4%
3M (Nov 14, 2025)	+1.5%	+11%	-9.3%
6M (Aug 15, 2025)	+6.0%	+16%	-9.8%
1Y (Feb 14, 2025)	+12%	+16%	-4.5%
5Y (Feb 16, 2021)	+74%	+16%	+57%

Style

	IVW S&P 500 Growth · ↑ growth favored, ↓ rotation out	IVE S&P 500 Value · ↑ value favored, ↓ growth preferred	Spread Growth vs Value · ↑ growth leading, ↓ value leading
Latest	$119.01 (Feb 15)	$220.29 (Feb 15)	—
1W (Feb 9, 2026)	-2.9%	-0.6%	-2.3%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	-3.5%	+3.9%	-7.3%
1M (Jan 16, 2026)	-4.0%	+1.4%	-5.4%
3M (Nov 14, 2025)	-1.7%	+5.1%	-6.8%
6M (Aug 15, 2025)	+3.1%	+9.2%	-6.2%
1Y (Feb 14, 2025)	+12%	+12%	-0.4%
5Y (Feb 16, 2021)	+78%	+64%	+13%

Geography

	S&P 500 US equities · ↑ US leading, ↓ US lagging	EFA Developed Markets ex-US · ↑ global strength, ↓ US outperforming	EEM Emerging Markets · ↑ global risk-on, ↓ risk-off
Latest	$681.75 (Feb 15)	$104.24 (Feb 15)	$61.12 (Feb 15)
1W (Feb 9, 2026)	-1.8%	+0.2%	+1.0%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	-0.0%	+8.6%	+12%
1M (Jan 16, 2026)	-1.4%	+4.7%	+5.6%
3M (Nov 14, 2025)	+1.5%	+9.4%	+11%
6M (Aug 15, 2025)	+6.0%	+13%	+22%
1Y (Feb 14, 2025)	+12%	+27%	+38%
5Y (Feb 16, 2021)	+74%	+36%	+5.5%

Breadth

	S&P 500 Cap-weighted · ↑ mega-cap driven, ↓ broad weakness	RSP S&P 500 Equal Weight · ↑ broad participation, ↓ narrow market	Spread Equal vs Cap-weighted · ↑ broad rally, ↓ narrow leadership
Latest	$681.75 (Feb 15)	$202.87 (Feb 15)	—
1W (Feb 9, 2026)	-1.8%	+0.2%	+2.0%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	-0.0%	+5.9%	+5.9%
1M (Jan 16, 2026)	-1.4%	+1.9%	+3.4%
3M (Nov 14, 2025)	+1.5%	+8.3%	+6.8%
6M (Aug 15, 2025)	+6.0%	+9.2%	+3.2%
1Y (Feb 14, 2025)	+12%	+12%	+0.2%
5Y (Feb 16, 2021)	+74%	+50%	-24%

▶Sector Rotation

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

XLY

XLF

XLU

XLP

Spread

	XLY Consumer Discretionary · ↑ spending strong, ↓ belt-tightening	XLF Financials · ↑ rate/growth optimism, ↓ credit concerns	XLU Utilities — defensive · ↑ safety seeking, ↓ risk-on	XLP Consumer Staples — defensive · ↑ safety seeking, ↓ risk-on	Spread Cyclical vs Defensive · ↑ risk-on, ↓ defensive rotation
Latest	$116.18 (Feb 13)	$51.65 (Feb 15)	$46.50 (Feb 13)	$89.51 (Feb 15)	—
1W (Feb 9, 2026)	-1.2%	-4.2%	+7.0%	+2.4%	-7.4%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	-2.7%	-5.7%	+8.9%	+15%	-16%
1M (Jan 16, 2026)	-5.0%	-5.1%	+7.2%	+9.0%	-13%
3M (Nov 14, 2025)	+0.8%	-1.5%	+5.6%	+16%	-11%
6M (Aug 15, 2025)	+1.8%	-1.5%	+10%	+9.1%	-9.5%
1Y (Feb 14, 2025)	+3.2%	-0.3%	+21%	+11%	-14%
5Y (Feb 16, 2021)	+43%	+61%	+75%	+37%	-3.8%

▶Cross-Asset Signals

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

Cu/Au Ratio

VIX

USD/JPY

Dollar

	Cu/Au Ratio Copper/Gold Ratio · ↑ optimism, ↓ fear	VIX Volatility Index · ↑ fear rising, ↓ calm	USD/JPY Dollar/Yen · ↑ risk-on, ↓ safe-haven yen bid	Dollar Trade-Weighted Dollar · ↑ dollar strength, ↓ dollar weakness
Latest	—	20.82 (Feb 12)	152.80 (Feb 15)	118.24 (Feb 6)
1W (Feb 9, 2026)	-2.4%	+20%	-2.1%	+0.0%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	-13%	+39%	-2.5%	-1.3%
1M (Jan 16, 2026)	-9.9%	+31%	-3.3%	-1.5%
3M (Nov 14, 2025)	-7.7%	+5.0%	-1.2%	-2.2%
6M (Aug 15, 2025)	-15%	+38%	+3.8%	-1.7%
1Y (Feb 14, 2025)	-30%	+41%	+0.5%	-7.0%
5Y (Feb 16, 2021)	-46%	-3.0%	+44%	+5.8%

▶Investment Styles

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

MTUM

QUAL

XLU

IVE

	MTUM Momentum Factor · ↑ trends persisting, ↓ reversals	QUAL Quality Factor · ↑ flight to quality, ↓ speculative appetite	XLU Utilities — low vol proxy · ↑ safety demand, ↓ risk-on	IVE Value Factor · ↑ value rally, ↓ growth preferred
Latest	$251.48 (Feb 15)	$201.75 (Feb 15)	$46.50 (Feb 13)	$220.29 (Feb 15)
1W (Feb 9, 2026)	-2.3%	-1.1%	+7.0%	-0.6%
YTD (Dec 31, 2025)	+0.5%	+1.6%	+8.9%	+3.9%
1M (Jan 16, 2026)	-2.7%	-0.8%	+7.2%	+1.4%
3M (Nov 14, 2025)	+2.2%	+3.8%	+5.6%	+5.1%
6M (Aug 15, 2025)	+2.7%	+7.2%	+10%	+9.2%
1Y (Feb 14, 2025)	+10%	+9.0%	+21%	+12%
5Y (Feb 16, 2021)	+42%	+69%	+75%	+64%

Treasury Rates

Period	10Y Treasury (daily) Nominal yield	10Y Breakeven (daily) Nominal minus TIPS	10Y TIPS Yield (daily) Real yield (TIPS)	2Y-10Y Spread (daily) Yield curve spread
Latest	4.09% (Feb 12)	2.27% (Feb 13)	1.80% (Feb 12)	0.64% (Feb 13)
1M	4.24% (Jan 16)	2.33% (Jan 16)	1.91% (Jan 16)	0.65% (Jan 16)
6M	4.33% (Aug 15)	2.38% (Aug 15)	1.95% (Aug 15)	0.58% (Aug 15)
1Y	4.47% (Feb 14)	2.43% (Feb 14)	2.04% (Feb 14)	0.21% (Feb 14)
2Y	4.30% (Feb 16)	2.33% (Feb 16)	1.97% (Feb 16)	-0.34% (Feb 16)
5yr Range	1.19% 4.98%	2.02% 3.02%	-1.19% 2.52%	-1.08% 1.59%
10yr Range	0.52% 4.98%	0.50% 3.02%	-1.19% 2.52%	-1.08% 1.59%

Inflation

Core PCE YoY

2.79% (Nov '25)

Running Hot

↓0.04% vs 1M

5yr range 2.20%

5.61%

Core CPI YoY

2.51% (Jan '26)

Near Target

↓0.14% vs 1M

5yr range 1.65%

6.63%

Monetary Policy

Fed Funds Rate

3.64% (Jan '26)

Normal Range

↓0.08% vs 1M

5yr range 0.06%

5.33%

−

1-Year Expected Inflation

2.59% (Feb '26)

Anchored

↑0.00% vs 1M

5yr range 1.37%

4.23%

=

Real Fed Funds Rate

1.05% (Jan '26)

Neutral Policy

↑0.52% vs 1M

5yr range -3.06%

3.71%

Growth

Real-time GDP tracking

GDPNow Real-Time GDP Estimate

4.24% (Q4 '25)

Running Hot

↑0.76% vs 1Q

5yr range -2.73%

6.50%

Weekly Economic Index

2.70% (Feb 7)

Healthy Growth

↑0.49% vs 1W

5yr range -0.91%

10.57%

Labor Market

Unemployment Rate

4.30% (Jan '26)

Full Employment

↓0.10% vs 1M

5yr range 3.40%

6.10%

Initial Jobless Claims

227K (Feb 7)

Healthy Churn

↓5K vs 1W

5yr range 189K

704K

JOLTS Job Openings

6.54M (Dec '25)

Healthy Demand

↓0.39M vs 1M

5yr range 6.54M

12.13M

Credit Markets

BBB Corporate Bond Spread

0.99% (Feb 12)

Tight Spreads

↑0.03% vs 1W

5yr range 0.93%

2.10%

High Yield Spread

2.92% (Feb 12)

Reaching for Yield

↓0.05% vs 1W

5yr range 2.59%

5.99%

Money Supply

M2 × Velocity = GDP

M2 Money Supply

$22.4T (Dec '25)

↑$0.1T vs 1M

5yr range $19.8T

$22.4T

×

M2 Velocity

1.41 (Q3 '25)

Post-QE Normal

↑0.01 vs 1Q

5yr range 1.15

1.41

=

Nominal GDP

$31.1T (Q3 '25)

↑$0.6T vs 1Q

5yr range $23.4T

$31.1T

M2 YoY Growth

4.60% (Dec '25)

Tightening

↑0.33% vs 1M

5yr range -4.69%

23.95%

Consumer Health

Personal Savings Rate

3.50% (Nov '25)

Stretched

↓0.20% vs 1M

5yr range 2.20%

26.20%

Consumer Sentiment

52.9 (Dec '25)

Despair

↑1.9 vs 1M

5yr range 50.0

88.3

Credit Card Delinquency Rate

2.98% (Q3 '25)

Normal

↓0.06% vs 1Q

5yr range 1.53%

3.22%

Debt Service Ratio

11.26% (Q3 '25)

Manageable

↑0.13% vs 1Q

5yr range 9.84%

11.26%

Real Wage Growth YoY

1.35% (Q3 '25)

Keeping Pace

↓0.82% vs 1Q

5yr range -5.60%

2.21%

Government Fiscal Health

Total Public Debt Outstanding

$38.6T (Feb '26)

↑$0.2T vs 1M

5yr range $27.9T

$38.6T

Monthly Tax Receipts

$564B (Jan '26)

↑$64B vs 1M

5yr range $271B

$941B

Monthly Budget Deficit/Surplus

$+257B (Jan '26)

→flat vs 1M ago

5yr range $-308B

$+660B

Average Interest Rate on Debt

3.35% (Jan '26)

↓0.01% vs 1M

5yr range 1.42%

3.42%

Debt/GDP Ratio

124.30% (Q3 '25)

Unsustainable

↑5.30% vs 1Q

5yr range 114.00%

124.28%

Weekly Analysis

Key Takeaways (Feb 16, 2026)

Investment Thesis

Rate Cuts and Fiscal Spending Support Risk Assets in 2026

Market Signals

Level 1: Asset Classes

Level 2: Equity Dimensions

Size

Style

Geography

Breadth

Level 3: Sector Rotation

Level 4: Cross-Asset Signals

Level 5: Investment Styles

Treasury Rates

Inflation

Monetary Policy

Growth

Labor Market

Credit Markets

Money Supply

Consumer Health

Government Fiscal Health